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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd