A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
